Why is Blockchain Taking So Long to Take Off?
No technology is perfect and all technologies are a double-edged sword. Blockchain is no exception. It’s not entirely secure and scammers in the cryptocurrency application of blockchain have made their mark…oh and that guy who lost the password to his hard drive with all his cryptocurrency worth about $300+ Million. Ouch, that’s really gotta hurt. The latest blockchain craze is NFT (Non-Fungible Transfer), which has proven to be quite profitable for some and is actually a very viable application of blockchain.
Blockchain can solve a lot of problems. It will and has solved. A lot of problems. So why hasn’t it still, after over a decade, truly made it into a mainstream technology? As a digital anthropologist, I work at the intersection of humanity and technology, mostly information technologies and blockchain certainly qualifies as that.
Over the past three decades (yikes!), I’ve brought some interesting technologies to market (like a body scanner for measurements) and helped a number of startups figure out how to better get humans to engage with their technologies (like a device for your toilet that detects diseases and things.) Most new technologies take about a decade to reach mass-market status and move through the hype cycle into common daily use. Some take a little less and some never quite get there and end up serving niche markets or take much longer. Like Google Glass, which never quite hit mass market adoption for scalability. Apple thinks consumers are ready. I disagree. I also digress. Back to blockchain. What’s the issue with it taking so long to hit mainstream acceptance? It’s a few things.
The Cryptocurrency Thing
Probably the two best known cryptocurrencies, or digital currencies for many, is Bitcoin and Ethereum. The stories we hear in the news around Bitcoin is how expensive one Bitcoin is. The stories we hear the most in the media however, are scams and the use of cryptocurrencies for ransomware and other nefarious activities. Cryptocurrencies remain an exceedingly small percentage of money out there. Banks and global financial institutions are exploring the possibilities and China has launched its own digital currency (how China is using it is, well, a bit frightening.) But it creates doubts in many consumers minds.
Wrapping Ones Head Around It
The other, probably bigger thing is, most consumers just can’t wrap their heads around it. They aren’t sure what it means or how it actually works. It’s actually very simple, but it’s not tactile and it’s not something easily seen like an email app, Excel, PowerPoint or Twitter. Humans have a hard time processing with and dealing with something that is largely conceptual. A fact that many a Blockchain company that has excellent solutions, doesn’t realize. There’s a way around it, but they see the world with blinders on and their marketing message gets lost. So they fail. I’ve seen it too many times.
The Trust Issue
Humans, throughout history, have ALWAYS distrusted new technologies. Remember just over 100 years ago and that newfangled thing called a “car” or “automobile”? Then there’s the telephone. In the initial days of the telephone, a business would install one phone, yes, just one. It was placed on a table in the front of the office. One person was assigned to answer the phone when it rang. The work would stop and everyone would stare at the person answering it and listen. No one quite understood it, but most of all, they didn’t trust it. Now we often forget that the rectangle in our pocket has a phone in it that we can actually call people on.
The other side of the trust issue is banks, major corporations and others that realize it is rather difficult to do nefarious things when everything can be traced. Blockchain could solve a lot of problems with food and monetary aid, such as the amount of money that goes to paying bribes to questionable governments in countries hit by national disasters. Blockchain could almost cut out 90% of corruption. That gives you an idea of how rampant corruption is. Not just in developing nations.
Blockchain and Geopolitics
Then there’s elections. Blockchain could ensure that election fraud becomes almost impossible. Dictatorships don’t care, but emerging dictators in quasi democratic and emerging democracies do. Far-right parties wouldn’t like it either and in countries like Brazil and the United States that have right leaning governorships and national parties who know their policies don’t reflect the majority, well, you know how they’d feel about Blockchain.
Even for foreigners who buy land in another country, blockchain could help ensure proof of ownership. If the Rule of Law is ignored or not valued, such as in China and Myanmar (Burma), it makes it harder even if Blockchain is employed. Humans and politics and technology get weird pretty fast.
Blockchain is not going away. As our world becomes ever more digital and technologies become ever more deeply embedded in our societies and cultures, blockchain will be a necessary Warp & Woof technology to help our world come together.
Because blockchain is so powerful and can solve a broad swathe of problems, yet is hard for the average person to comprehend, makes it a technology that will take time to become a more mainstream technology. In the meantime and on the pathway there, we will see some big and little wins. For the next decade or so, those wins will be niche applications, such as NFT’s and others. But some of those little wins could still be worth billions. Startups that think they’re going to change global financial, real-estate and political markets? Be aware of the dangers.
